Geoff’s FIVE-OUT: Pistons’ Paint Blueprint, Avdija’s Pace, & Knicks’ New Offense
Welcome to Five-Out! Each Friday, we will investigate five of the NBA’s hottest storylines and emerging trends.
The first few weeks of the NBA have exceeded expectations. Victor Wembanyama’s MVP start has expedited the Spurs’ timeline, Luka Doncic is putting up video game numbers, and the Bulls seem allergic to losing close games.
So much has happened, and we’re barely ten percent through the season. Without further ado, let’s dive in.
The Pistons are bullying their way to the top of the East
Does anybody (outside of Detroit) know what’s happening with the Pistons?
Maybe you’ve been keeping up with the standings and know they’re 6-2, sitting alone in second place just half a game behind the Chicago Bulls. Perhaps you’ve even watched a couple of their games.
But what you probably don’t know is that they are winning in a way that is antithetical to most other teams in the NBA. They’re not running and gunning or firing an abundance of 3-pointers; they’re dominating the paint.
This isn’t stubbornness or a refusal to evolve with the times, it’s a front office and a coaching staff identifying the strengths and limitations of its roster and constructing a strategy accordingly.
Perhaps no player encapsulates the Pistons’ identity more than 21-year-old Jalen Duren. Duren has been completely dominant on both ends of the court. He’s always been a rebounding machine (98th percentile in offensive rebounding rate for the second straight season), only now he’s scoring and blocking more shots than ever. Opponents have resorted to just fouling him, leading to him doubling his career-high FTA rate. Oh yeah, he’s shooting over 80% on those now.
Of course, you can’t talk about Pistons basketball without discussing Cade Cunningham. Detroit’s all-in bet on paint dominance would not work without a player like Cunningham who has proven himself to be essentially fit-proof. He’s so skilled he can create offense in a phone booth.
Ausar Thompson, Isaiah Stewart, and Ron Holland round out their young core. And with the return of Jaden Ivey looming, the Pistons may just be closer than many think.
Deni Avdija is racing past everybody
Believe it or not, no team in the NBA averages more transition possessions per game than the Portland Trail Blazers who are also second in pace and attempt a whopping 45% of their shots in the first nine seconds of the shot clock—trailing only Miami in both.
While what we’re seeing in Miami is a complete overhaul in team strategy, what’s happening in Portland is mostly on the back (or legs) of Deni Avdija, who is a one-man freight train. Avdija sort of reminds me of Luis Mendoza from the second and third Mighty Ducks movies. He’s faster than everybody else on the court and has no brakes. Often Avdija doesn’t even need a turnover or even a missed shot to create a transition opportunity. He’ll just take the inbounds pass and race up the floor.
And Portland desperately needs this too. Despite the hot start of Jrue Holiday, the Blazers have really struggled without Avdija on the court, going from a team that would be top give in net rating to one of the worst without him. Shaedon Sharpe will likely turn it around, and you’d expect Toumani Camara to make more shots away from the rim, but this is a team built to be a great defense that will have to find ways to tread water offensively. This puts a lot of pressure on Avdija, both in the half court and to create pace sometimes out of thin air. So far, he has been up to the challenge.
I guess it’s no surprise that Kevin Pelton picked Avdija as one of his candidates to be a first-time All-Star this year.
Amen Thompson is breaking the rules of modern basketball
Some aspects of the modern NBA are very simple. In fact, it reads plain and clear in the fine print that non-bigs have to be able to shoot to cut it in today’s game.
So how does Amen Thompson keep doing this?
For starters, like his brother, he’s in one of the few situations in the NBA where non-shooters aren’t a (relative) detriment. Like the Pistons, the Rockets aren’t trying to outshoot their opponents. They’re trying to pulverize them. The Rockets sometimes play lineups where Amen, standing 6”7’, is the smallest player on the court for them.
But Amen Thompson, another one of Pelton’s rising stars, isn’t just a flawed player being elevated by the system—he does so many different things and plays so many different roles for Houston that such a label would feel disrespectful. He’s a Swiss Army knife defensively, guarding any player the opponent has to offer while arguably being Houston’s best off-ball defender.
On offense, he’ll go from initiating offense on the perimeter to hanging out in the dunker’s spot catching lobs from Alperen Sengun, who he has formed a symbiotic connection with (the Rockets are blitzing opponents by over 20 points per 100 possessions when they play together).
To their credit, the Rockets are encouraging him to shoot more, even as he sits at just 17% from beyond the arc. Maybe one day he’ll figure it out. But in the meantime, he’s carved out a niche that’s made him one of the most important players on a title contender.
The Knicks’ gauntlet has arrived
Don’t shake your head. The Knicks might score on you if you’re not paying attention.
Outsiders might see a Knicks team that was 5th, 7th, and 4th in offense the last three seasons and wonder what the fuss is about. If you didn’t know any better, you’d think this was just natural progression. But the devil is in the details.
This is not a team capitalizing on continuity as Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, Karl-Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, and Miles McBride return for another season together. On the contrary, this is a moth that spent years tirelessly trying to dig out of its cocoon finally spreading its wings.
In just eight games, the Knicks have replaced a largely heliocentric system built upon the brilliance of Jalen Brunson with a more egalitarian one that seeks to elevate all participants. The early returns are very promising. While Brunson and Towns’ numbers look largely the same (wait until each of their 3-point shooting normalizes), Bridges and Anunoby have seen spikes in their offensive impact.
The theoretical appeal of these four players has always been the potential to maximize four highly impactful players at the same time. There is very little redundancy in the way they play, where they like to operate, and how they accrue their impact. But for that to occur, there had to be interaction between them. By infusing more ball and man movement into the offense, Mike Brown has unlocked those interactions between his best players and raised the team’s ceiling in doing so.
What’s happening in Orlando?
It’s only been eight games.
It’s only been eight games.
If I were a betting man (there was a time), I’d bet on Orlando to turn it around. It’s unlikely Desmond Bane just forgot how to shoot. And there are strong indicators that both Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero have made leaps that were expected from them.
Throw in other promising happenings—Jalen Suggs not missing a beat, Anthony Black getting to the rim more, and Wendell Carter Jr. maybe remembering how to shoot—and there is still a clear formula for this team to reach the heights many thought was inevitable just three weeks ago.
But it’s undeniable that something feels off watching Orlando. Banchero and Wagner haven’t yet figured out the interactive impact I referred to above with the Knicks. They seem determined to take turns standing in the corner as the other tries to attack. The team plays better with just one of them than when both are on the court together which just can’t happen with two guys you’re paying near-max contracts.
The clock is ticking for Jamahl Mosley. Yes, there will be some quick fixes. As I mentioned above, Bane is going to remember how to shoot (or somebody will start investigating why elite shooters get amnesia when they arrive in Orlando). But figuring out a way to get Banchero and Wagner to be their best selves in unison has to be Orlando’s top priority. There’s no path to hitting their long-term ceiling unless they figure that out.
One solution? How about putting the ball in Wagner’s hands more? According to @dlee4three on X, Wagner is sixth on the Magic in on-ball percentage at just 17.3%. That’s right, all of Suggs, Black, and Tyus Jones are controlling the ball more than Wagner. Put the ball in Wagner’s hands more, use Banchero as a screener for him and see what kind of magic they can create together.
There’s a long way to go in this season. But if Mosley doesn’t turn it around soon, he might see a quick and unceremonious end.
